"Capable, dynamic management operating in a fertile field for future growth"
















As we have repeated many times on this blog, the investment process we endorse is not based upon trying to time market movements but rather is founded upon ownership of carefully selected companies with certain characteristics which are held through the market and economic cycles. Please see previous posts here, here, and here for discussion of that major principle.

T. Rowe Price, who to the best of our knowledge (and his) was the founder of that theory and the first to publish a decades-long record of portfolio performance based on that principle, identified the most important characteristics of a company for investment in these words:

"When selecting growth stocks, the most important requirement is capable, dynamic management operating in a fertile field for future growth" ("A Successful Investment Philosophy based on the Growth Stock Theory of Investing," 1973).

Although based upon owning businesses for many years and not selling them and buying them back at every market turn, this is is not a "buy and hold" philosophy. There are "sell signals" -- they are simply based on signs in the company itself or the industry it operates in, rather than the fickle moves of the market. In fact, elsewhere in the same essay, Mr. Price wrote that his approach was to buy shares in promising business enterprises and then "stay with them as long as they were operating in fertile fields and benefiting from capable management."

The "as long as" part indicates that when you see a change in the growth landscape, or an indication that the company is no longer benefiting from capable management, it is time to put your capital elsewhere.

The above interview from this past Monday is an excellent discussion of some of the issues surrounding the evaluation of the management of a company. In it, Hank Greenberg discusses some troubling signs concerning the overall management of iconic insurance firm AIG*, a company he previously served as CEO and Chairman of the Board. Admittedly, he has a perspective which may not be absolutely unbiased when evaluating the current leadership, but the discussion hits on many of the areas you must look at when evaluating whether a company you are considering for the investment of capital is "benefiting from capable management." Further, his deep knowledge of the issues surrounding company management and his long years of experience with the company he is discussing are indisputable.

According to Mr. Price, this was one of the two most critical areas of evaluation for a company you own or would like to own. If you see troubling signals indicating management capability may be compromised, it is a sign that you should stop investing capital in that company and move it elsewhere.

* The Principals of Taylor Frigon Capital Management do not own AIG.

For future posts dealing with this same subject, see also:

Subscribe to receive new posts from the Taylor Frigon Advisor via email -- click here.



Continue Reading

The inflationary Fed, part II











More observers are beginning to be concerned about inflation, particularly now that the widely-anticipated "recession" has not arrived and the credit scare that may have reached its height in March has been addressed by the creation of new lending facilities.

As we noted in March, those new lending facilities were an effective response that we thought would remedy the immediate financial crisis (although we also noted that they were created too late to save Bear Stearns, contrary to the popular opinion).

However, as we also noted previously (such as in this post from February entitled "The Inflationary Fed" and especially the post after that one entitled "A troubling quotation"), the Fed's recent round of lowering interest rates in an attempt to "steer the economy" is in an entirely different category.

As we wrote in that second post, "Many economic problems have been created by the Fed trying to steer the economy faster or slower using monetary policy, including the current credit crisis." Rather than trying to steer the economy, we argued, the Fed should focus on providing businesses with a predictable, stable currency, and then businesses will grow the economy, not central bankers.

Recently, Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin wrote an article in the Wall Street Journal in which he argued the exact same point, noting that "When the Fed was created in 1913, its principal role was to maintain a sound currency with stable prices" but that in 1978, the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act of 1978 "changed the Fed's mandate, directing it to focus on long-term price stability and short-term economic growth."

While we agree with the general argument Congressman Ryan makes that the Fed should not steer the economy, we would also argue that the Humphrey-Hawkins Act of 1978 only made more specific the goals enacted in the landmark Employment Act of 1946, which stated that "it is the continuing policy and responsibility of the Federal Government to use all practicable means [. . .] to coordinate and utilize all its plans, functions, and resources [. . .] to promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing power" (full text of the 1946 Act available here). For a good discussion of the history of the Fed's mandate and the debate over whether it should try to steer the economy in addition to providing a stable currency, see the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco's Economic Letter dated January 29, 1999.

If the latest round of boom and bust (this time in housing and CDO issuance) hasn't shown the folly of the Fed's attempts to steer "short-term economic growth," what ever will?

For a graphic view of the CDO-issuing explosion that accompanied the Greenspan Fed's lowering of rates to 1% for thirteen months between 2003 and 2004, see this previous post.

One perspective we have arrived at through many decades of observing this problem is that the positive aspects of capitalism which tend to work towards greater productivity and lower prices (as businesses compete with one another to add greater value to their customers) can offset the inflationary mistakes of the Fed. In heavily-regulated environments (such as those that characterized the 1970s), these positive aspects of capitalism are hindered.

These are issues that all investors should carefully consider and understand.

For later posts on this same subject, see also:

Subscribe to receive new posts from the Taylor Frigon Advisor via email -- click here.
Continue Reading

Yahoo, Microsoft, and Cloud Computing












A few months ago, we called attention to the excellent article by George Gilder and Bret Swanson that pointed out some of the indicators of the arrival of the "third phase of Net evolution" that Mr. Gilder has seen approaching for two decades.

In the wake of the "collapse" last weekend of Microsoft's bid to buy Yahoo*, there has been plenty of analysis and commentary, but very little discussion of perhaps the most important aspect of it all, which is the fact that the deal itself (which may well still take place, according to astute observer Henry Blodget and others) is a very clear indication of the direction computer-enabled applications are moving.

The Gilder and Swanson article above, in fact, points it out: the fact that "PC-king Microsoft" must pursue "net-centric Yahoo" is a harbinger of the arriving paradigm of "cloud computing," in which the processes and storage that has been confined in boxes on your desk or in your home (where Microsoft has dominated) move back to the connected "cloud" of the internet (where Yahoo, Google, and other players have been better able to provide the tools users need for navigating and manipulating information), where users can tap into it at will from any location.

Many continue to be oblivious to the rapid arrival of cloud computing and the changes it will bring not just to entertainment but to many aspects of business, medicine, even the military. The willingness of Microsoft, the dominant company of the previous paradigm, to venture billions of dollars in pursuit of Yahoo, should clarify the central importance of this new paradigm.

*The Principals of Taylor Frigon Capital Management do not own shares of Microsoft (MSFT) or Yahoo (YHOO).

For later posts on this same topic, see also:
Continue Reading

A perspective on San Francisco's restriction of chain stores






Today, the San Francisco Chronicle reported that San Francisco "is increasingly hostile to chain stores and restaurants," meaning (in the definition of city legislation enacted a few years ago) any store or restaurant with more than eleven outlets nationally and two or more repeated characteristics among either trademark, merchandise, uniforms, facade, signage, decor, or color. Since 2004, San Francisco's planning code has banned, over large portions of the city, permits for new retail outlets to any business which is part of a "chain" or "formula store" as defined above.

The Chronicle tells us that planning commissioner Kathrin Moore, "who has been outspoken against chain stores, said they hurt local merchants and often are more harmful to the environment because their goods must be transported from outside the city."

Exactly how they "hurt local merchants" is not spelled out, but the economic answer is that chain stores (such as coffee chains or grocery stores) are often able to provide goods for less than local merchants can due to economies of scale. If chains are unable to provide goods of similar quality at lower prices, they would not be in a position to "hurt local merchants." Any large business got that way because they were able to provide value in some way that customers wanted -- and in most cases, successful larger businesses were once smaller businesses.

When governments artificially restrict competition in this way, they ultimately end up hurting customers, who are prevented from buying food, or coffee, or other goods and services that they want or need, at the most competitive prices available. Because they don't like hardware chains, government is effectively taxing everyone who wants to buy a hammer in San Francisco. With goods like food, which people must buy frequently, they are adding cost to everyone, including the lowest-income members of society, in exchange for their high-minded satisfaction in knowing that they are "helping local merchants" (at the expense of other merchants, and at the expense of their own citizens).

As for commissioner Kathrin Moore's second reason, the supposed environmental benefit from selling local goods instead of goods that "must be transported from outside the city," there are several important economic problems with this increasingly common environmentalist argument as well.

Aside from the fact that San Francisco is not a major grower of coffee beans (presumably, even local non-chain coffee shops must get the majority of their coffee beans from somewhere beyond the San Francisco city limits), the argument for consuming only local goods flies in the face of one of the greatest benefits of free economies -- the division of labor.

The division of labor enables areas that are better at producing one good (such as wheat, or automobiles) to produce that, in exchange for goods that are more effectively produced somewhere else (such as tropical fruit, or motion pictures).

San Franciscans who argue for "buying local" benefit from their proximity to some of the most productive produce-growing regions in the world, with world-class fruits and vegetables and wines and cheeses grown or produced nearby. But do people like Ms. Moore really believe that every city should only make available to their citizens locally produced wines and mangoes and pineapples and artichokes? Should Nebraskans convert land that is ideally suited for growing corn and instead plant bananas and zinfandel grapes so that the citizens of Omaha can "buy local" and be spared the evil of consuming "goods that must be transported from outside the city"?

The fact is that the ability to allow specialization is a hallmark of free economies, and that in communist countries during the twentieth century the division of labor broke down to such a degree that factories had to produce everything they needed themselves -- just as Ms. Moore would like to see San Franciscans do, apparently. On page 137 of his book, Capitalism, economist George Reisman quotes two authors who describe the contingencies that factories in communist countries had to take because they could not rely on the delivery of goods and services from elsewhere:

"There is considerable evidence that Russian plants do for themselves many things -- like producing screws with slow-speed machinery -- which could better be done by others -- in this case, specialized screw manufacturers using high speed equipment" (Henry H. Villard, Economic Development, NY: Reinhart, 1959, page 171).

"For a Soviet factory -- or a Soviet research institute -- the best response to unreliable business partners is self-sufficiency. When the planners decided to build the giant Fiat factory, they decided to make it almost entirely self-sufficient. Except for electrical equipment, window glass and tires, every part used in Zhiguli -- every nut, bolt, seat cover and piston ring -- is made in the factory itself. Gersh Budker's Institute of Nuclear Physics in Novosibirsk couldn't buy the instruments it needed, so the scientists there decided to make their own. This kind of self-reliance is expensive and inefficient." (Robert Kaiser, Russia, NY: Atheneum, 1976, page 338).

Someone should acquaint Ms. Moore and the San Francisco city planning commissioners with those quotations, particularly the last line that "this kind of self-reliance is expensive and inefficient." Those who advocate "buying local" instead of letting coffee-producing regions produce coffee and wine-producing regions produce wine are advocating that same kind of expensive and inefficient self-reliance, to the detriment of their citizens (whose food budgets are already straining from the increase in food prices caused by inflationary monetary policy and environmentally-motivated ethanol mandates).

Further, these kinds of government interferences in free markets always end up being unfair, arbitrarily privileging one business over another. Does the city of San Francisco prohibit the existence of banks that have more than eleven nationwide outlets within their "retail chain-free boundaries"? How about ATMs? Do the cars that citizens drive through the streets have to be built in San Francisco too (or were they shipped from other places)? How about the computers that the owners of "non-chain" retail businesses use to keep their Quickbooks, or the cash registers they use for their tills? And, note that this kind of restriction on who is deemed worthy of renting a piece of property means that city planners have decided that it is better to have a piece of commercial real estate sit empty than be filled with a paying renter who happens to be part of a chain -- which hurts the property owner in order to please those who find a chain store somehow more unsightly than a vacant building.

You may wonder what all this has to do with investing -- and the answer is that it is something that is very important for investors to pay attention to since it can have a real effect on value. We've written before about the fact that the Taylor Frigon strategy is directly descended from that developed by the late Dick Taylor and the late T. Rowe Price, most recently in this post.

In his 1973 essay, "A Successful Investment Philosophy based on the Growth Stock Theory of Investing," Mr. Price wrote that "the investment worth of a share of common stock is dependent upon many factors" and that investors must be alert to "changes in the social, political and economic trends."

He went on to say (discussing developments in the U.S. during the late 1960s and early 1970s): "Socialization of basic industries requires management to do more and more [. . .] at the expense of stockholders who are the real owners of business. The ecology craze is sweeping the country, forcing many industries to spend billions of dollars, increasing costs of production and reducing profits."

We hope that San Francisco's recent experiments in restricting the free market at the expense of businesses, property owners, and ultimately individual citizens is an anomaly and not an indication of trend that will infect other areas.

For later posts dealing with this same subject, see also:



Continue Reading

Still not a recession, part II











Back when we were criticizing "The current recession drumbeat" of the media in November, or declaring in our "Happy New Year" post that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, a recession was still not imminent, there were very few others who agreed. By February 4, when we wrote "Still not a recession," the conventional wisdom was even more settled.

Now, however, the preliminary results are in and it appears the much-anticipated recession still has yet to arrive.

Here is a good post from Larry Kudlow yesterday quoting two good reactions to the first quarter GDP (including the aptly-titled "Dude, where's my recession?").

The most adamant recession predictions came from those who based their analysis on demand-side assumptions, such as the platitude that "the consumer is 70% of the economy."

Supply-side economists, such as Larry Kudlow, Brian Wesbury, and David Malpass, looked through a much clearer lens and saw the situation much more accurately. We have discussed the important difference between the supply-side (or production-based) and demand-side (or consumption-based) approaches several times, such as here.

We won't say "we told you so," because at Taylor Frigon Capital Management we do not base our investment discipline on the shaky practice of trying to call the next GDP number or the next move of the Fed. Doing so can end up causing you to "recession-proof" your portfolio at the worst possible time.

For future posts dealing with this same topic, see also:



Continue Reading