Thursday, October 15, 2020
Have you heard of this company? Vuzix (VUZI)
Investment Climate October 2020
Stocks continued the march toward recovery in the third quarter and turned positive for the year - a feat that just a few months earlier would have been thought to be nearly impossible. Clearly, markets overreacted to the COVID panic, given the severity of the downturn, and have now largely corrected that overreaction. The outperformance in our growth strategies continued in the quarter, and the performance continued to be very broad-based.
While we have always believed the path to investment success involves constant evaluation of the businesses in which we are invested, rather than the general market (including the individual market prices of the companies we own), the current environment of hyper-volatility and excessive fear makes it even more crucial to take that approach. Simply put, in times of extreme uncertainty, value migrates towards real, sustainable business models, and we believe the fact that we take extreme care in seeking out and investing in such companies is the reason for our considerable outperformance over time, especially more recently.
The upcoming election has many investors concerned. We believe there are important issues being addressed and the choices offer some stark differences, at least in rhetoric. We believe that the importance of maintaining a thriving, healthy, free-enterprise system is necessary in order for the economy to continue its recovery from the COVID 19 fiasco, and investors would be wise to pay close attention to any policies that serve to thwart that system. However, it is also important for investors to consider that in the system of representative government in which the U.S. economy operates, significant change is incremental and difficult to inflict any other way but marginally. In our view, barring a government takeover of a significant portion of private business (obviously an extreme and unlikely action regardless of the election outcome), it is likely to be business as usual post-election.
The modern stock market, which is so driven by algorithmic trading, is marked by bouts of extreme volatility. This is simply a fact of life in the public markets and is here to stay. For those who have a business-based focus on public company investing, this should not be a deterrent, because such investors can take advantage of extreme valuations, in either direction, to appropriately rebalance portfolios. This is an approach we take and will continue to do so. We are encouraged by our recent performance and while corrections are to be expected, we believe the portfolio is very well positioned in the most important companies driving innovation in the world today.
Disclosures: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Taylor Frigon Capital Management LLC (“Taylor Frigon”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Taylor Frigon. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Taylor Frigon is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Taylor Frigon’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. If you are a Taylor Frigon client, please remember to contact Taylor Frigon, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.
Friday, September 4, 2020
Market Sell-Offs and Business
The broad markets are experiencing a sharp sell-off which started yesterday (September 3, 2020) and has continued today, prompting many market observers and pundits to declare that the long-anticipated “bubble bursting” from the market’s “fevered rally” had finally arrived (to use quotations we have seen in actual market commentaries this week). One comment we saw a few days ago applied a quotation from Ludwig von Mises to the current situation, who said: “there is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.”
Those commentators who have been saying for months that the positive price action of the past several months is nothing more than a “boom brought about by credit expansion” (or, as the pundits at Zero Hedge have lately been calling it, a “gamma melt-up”) are now understandably saying that their views are being vindicated and taking a victory lap. Meanwhile, the many investors who have been hearing those same views (that this is all a “melt-up”) for several months and have been growing increasingly more nervous are suddenly thinking that those voices must have been right and the day of reckoning must have finally arrived.
We ourselves are asset managers, not market commentators, and we don’t try to predict markets and we never have. We concern ourselves with predicting businesses. We have certainly formed some opinions over the past thirty-plus years of being professional asset managers running portfolios for investors, and we don’t disagree that many names as well as the market in general have probably been due for a pullback for some time, but we don’t try to predict when those will hit or how long they will last. But we are sure of one thing: well-run businesses with truly necessary technology or other innovative products and services such as the companies we own for our investors are not the result of any “gamma melt-up” or “excessive credit expansion.”
For example, just this week we were reviewing the technology of one of our microcap holdings, Transphorm, Inc. (TGAN), a pioneer in the design and manufacture of Gallium Nitride (GaN) power conversion products and the only company right now capable of producing 900V GaN transistors for commercialization. That technology is real technology: it is not the product of financial engineers on Wall Street or at the Fed, but rather of real engineers in Goleta, California led by some of the most respected names in semiconductor materials science.
Another company we own for clients is Compugen (CGEN), which uses scientific modeling and computing power to predict and discover new target pathways for the development of oncology treatments. Results of clinical trials thus far suggest that some of their discoveries are showing promise for patients with recalcitrant forms of cancer which have resisted all previous forms of treatment.
These kinds of real innovation and real industry are not the product of “credit expansion” or “market melt-ups.” We don’t deny the possibility that melt-ups have taken place and that those melt-ups will eventually have to come out of the market, and we know from experience that there will sometimes be extreme volatility (including to the negative side) when that takes place – and that this volatility will impact our companies along with the rest of the market. But our approach is to put our money into companies where we have a good idea that in five years the world will be using more of their product, not less. And we sometimes use sell-off situations to buy more of those kinds of companies, adding to existing positions or adding new positions in companies we have already researched and whose story we already like. We think too many investment professionals and market pundits have lost sight of that perspective on investing.
Disclosures: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Taylor Frigon Capital Management LLC (“Taylor Frigon”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Taylor Frigon. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Taylor Frigon is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Taylor Frigon’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. If you are a Taylor Frigon client, please remember to contact Taylor Frigon, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.
Thursday, July 30, 2020
An Honor From George Gilder
Today, our firm, and specifically our CIO, Gerry Frigon, was highlighted in preeminent technologist George Gilder's "Daily Prophecy" newsletter.
"I consider George Gilder to be the foremost American sage of the last sixty years. His predictions on technology, economics, and society have been spot on, and at 80 years of age he is going as fast and strong as he ever has. Without a doubt the lessons I have learned from George over the years far surpass whatever lessons he may have gleaned from me. Most importantly, George is a friend and partner unlike any other. I am blessed to know him. Thank you for such an honor George! I am humbled. Thank you!" - Gerry Frigon.
Read George Gilder's Newsletter About Gerry
Friday, July 24, 2020
Narrative-based Investment Strategy In The News...
Our Chief Investment Officer, Gerry Frigon, was featured in a series of articles recently in which he describes our investment strategy and the reasons for its success, as well as provides insight on the increasing impact of tech companies on the market...
MarketWatch (first article)
Wealth Professional
Value Walk
Disclosures: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Taylor Frigon Capital Management LLC (“Taylor Frigon”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Taylor Frigon. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Taylor Frigon is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Taylor Frigon’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. If you are a Taylor Frigon client, please remember to contact Taylor Frigon, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
The Power of Time
We have emphasized the importance of a long term view of investing for as long as we have been in the professional investment business. Recently, our CIO, Gerry Frigon, was quoted in Rocket HQ regarding the importance of "staying the course" during difficult times like we have just experienced in the last few months with the COVID-19 panic.
Frigon was quoted in March 2020 as saying:
"Don't panic and liquidate long-term investments," Frigon says. "This kind of thinking is dangerous, because when the market turns it happens so rapidly, it is shocking. The more the market recovers, the more difficult it becomes emotionally for those who got out to buy back in, often resulting in tremendous losses for those who panic-sold near the lows."
We have stated such things many times in the past, most notably in this post from March 2, 2009, in which we all but begged investors not to "get off the train" during the market rout that was occurring in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Remarkably, barely a week later, the bottom was hit on March 9, 2009 and the market exploded forward for the next decade.
The bull market born on March 9, 2009 ended in March 2020 with a massive panic sell-off, exacerbated by the crisis industry's over-hyping and the government's overreaction to the COVID-19 virus.
Since our CIO uttered those words in March 2020, the market averages climbed their way back to almost break even by June 30, 2020, finishing the first half of 2020 down a few percentage points, on average. And our own Core Growth Strategy finished the first half up well over 20% YTD!
How many more times will this have to happen before the average investor realizes the folly of trying to guess what the market is going to do?
Friday, July 10, 2020
Have you heard of this company? Vapotherm (VAPO)
At the beginning of the pandemic, high-velocity high-flow oxygen therapy was not viewed as a first-line therapy for treating the respiratory distress experienced by many COVID-19 patients, as physicians believed patients requiring more than supplemental oxygen would need to be placed on a mechanical ventilator. Now, the CDC, WHO, and NIH, the Society of Critical Care Medicine, the American College of Emergency Physicians, the Chinese, German, Italian, and Australian Thoracic Societies, and hospitals that are getting hit with the COVID-19 surge around the country all recognized our technology as an appropriate first-line therapy. In the pre-pandemic world, the development and alignment of these guidelines would have taken a lot longer to come together in my opinion.
This low saturation rate is very dangerous for patients. Our sales rep learned that the patient's doctor wanted to intubate the patient and put them on a ventilator. But this patient refused to be intubated. Our sales rep was there at the time, assembling the new Precision Flow units that had just been delivered. The doctor grabbed one of the units and put the patient on at 40 liters at 100% oxygen. Our sales rep learned that within ten minutes, the patient's oxygen saturation rate was at 95%. his work of breathing was reduced, his respiratory rate had declined, and he now seemed to be sitting comfortably in his bed. Our sales rep shared with me that from his perspective, this patient went from almost being put on the mechanical ventilator and potentially dying, to being put on Vapotherm and being discharged home three days later to recover.
Disclosures: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Taylor Frigon Capital Management LLC (“Taylor Frigon”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Taylor Frigon. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Taylor Frigon is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Taylor Frigon’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. If you are a Taylor Frigon client, please remember to contact Taylor Frigon, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.
Thursday, July 9, 2020
Investment Climate July 2020: Making History...While Looking Ahead
The second quarter of 2020 will go down as one of the best quarters in the history of the stock market. The unprecedented and swift recession that was “self-inflicted” by government responses to COVID-19, the world over, bottomed during the quarter and stock markets sensed that turn and rallied fiercely. On average, markets made up most of what they lost in the first quarter, ending June 30, 2020 with year-to-date returns down only a few percentage points after being down around 20% in the first quarter of 2020.
Disclosures: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Taylor Frigon Capital Management LLC (“Taylor Frigon”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Taylor Frigon. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Taylor Frigon is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Taylor Frigon’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. If you are a Taylor Frigon client, please remember to contact Taylor Frigon, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
ETFs Are Exacerbating Market Volatility
Published in Forbes April 28, 2020
Written by Gerry Frigon
Forbes Finance Council
Disclosures: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Taylor Frigon Capital Management LLC (“Taylor Frigon”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Taylor Frigon. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Taylor Frigon is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Taylor Frigon’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. If you are a Taylor Frigon client, please remember to contact Taylor Frigon, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
Investment Climate April 2020: Crazy but insightful times!
Monday, April 6, 2020
Still Pushing Back
We want to emphasize that we fully support efforts to use common sense at controlling the spread of the COVID-19 virus. That should go without saying. We also understand that policy-makers are in a difficult situation of being "damned if you do, damned if you don't." Therefore, our point was simply meant to balance the conventional wisdom about the repercussions of closing the world economy in the battle against the virus. Those who don't believe that economic hardship cost real lives are simply denying the facts of history.
Since that time we have come across other voices who have echoed similar sentiments, here also. One who we respect greatly for his insights on the economy and who we have been monitoring for over 25 years is Brian Wesbury of First Trust Advisors. In his piece published today "Do the Least Harm", it would appear he has similar views to ours with respect to the economic impacts of shutting down the economy. We appreciate Brian's commentary, as always.
Lastly, we have been in constant contact with our companies in the last few weeks, and while their stock prices have by no means been immune to the downturn, we are extremely impressed with the capable management teams that run our companies and are very confident that they will come out of this stronger than ever. And in some cases, they will strangely benefit from this debacle. Investing in "well-run companies in front of fertile field of future growth" has worked very well in the past and we believe will continue to work into the future. Stay tuned.
Disclosures: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Taylor Frigon Capital Management LLC (“Taylor Frigon”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Taylor Frigon. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Taylor Frigon is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Taylor Frigon’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. If you are a Taylor Frigon client, please remember to contact Taylor Frigon, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.
Don't own Zoom? Here's the next best bet: fund manager
Reuters, Posted April 3, 2020
Buy stocks of software companies that boost business efficiency such as AudioCodes, whose technology helps power Zoom and Skype, says growth fund manager Gerry Frigon of Taylor Frigon Capital Management. CLICK HERE for interview
Disclosures: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Taylor Frigon Capital Management LLC (“Taylor Frigon”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Taylor Frigon. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Taylor Frigon is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Taylor Frigon’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request. If you are a Taylor Frigon client, please remember to contact Taylor Frigon, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.